Ok, so now what?

Well, this is

I think it'll probably be an Abbott minority government, not so much because I'm a staunch Liberal voter, but more due to the fact that Oakeshott, Katter and Windsor (the three independents) are representative of country electorates. Their constituents will be pretty pissed if they hand power to a party that owes what seats it has won or retained to Greens preferences and are thus beholden to that party. And Bob Brown, whatever else he calls it, wants to take employment opportunities from the struggling country areas. However you feel about coal mining, those people need it just to keep their heads above water and Rob, Bob and Tony all know that. Whatever their feelings about the Nationals (the party they were all in before becoming disenchanted and running as independents), they are people who have consistently won their electorates by actually doing the work on the ground in full sight of their community. Their image and power relies on them doing what keeps their constituents happy, and if a Labor government means an ETS and an RSPT, then it also means no mining, no jobs, no money, and more broadly, no more nicely stable economy.

And on that point of the economy, that's the other reason why the independents will probably support the Coalition. One of their major considerations is the stability of the country. Australia will not be stable if the investment of the mining corporations and the Chinese desire for iron ore is restricted. We saw that with the original announcement - mining projects were cancelled all over the place. A stable country requires a stable economy, and with Labor in power and largely indebted to the Greens, you'd be taking out the main support.

Look, I know the environment is important. I know that it is vital that we preserve it, insofar as we can, for future generations. But shouldn't we also be preserving our prosperity as a nation?

Like or not, we need mining to keep us afloat in the face of Labor's monstrous debt. Like or not, we need coal fired power stations in order for us all to have electricity. Yes, there are sustainable alternatives, but they are only sustainable in terms of the fact that the resources being used are ones that are esssentially unlimited - the sun and the wind. But they are not yet capable of actually sustaining the nation's electricity needs. The clouds will cover the sun, the wind will be still and then we'll have rolling blackouts. If we're going to switch to renewable energy sources, I would rather that we took the time and did it properly, with the certainty that these sources can actually do the enormous job they need to do.

We need the mines for our economy, we need the coal for our electricity. Until suitable replacements for these two pillars of Australian society can be found, these must be kept in operation and safeguarded, because a country where there is money in the bank is what future generations of Australians will actually need.

Incidentally, I find it very curious that the people who are furthest from nature, the city-dwellers, are those who vote most to save it in voting for the Greens. Out where there are the native animals and vast tracts of bush, the people who live off the land, the farmers, all tend to vote National, Liberal, or the independents like Oakeshott, Katter and Windsor.

But on balance, yes, I believe Tony Abbott will be our new Prime Minister. If nothing else, those seats in doubt are (except for Denison in Tassie, where it will eithe be Labor or a Labor-leaning independent) probably going to go to the Liberals, because it's going to come down to the postal vote, which is largely pensioners, who, in general terms, do one of two things - vote Liberal, or vote for the incumbent. These are people with much more traditional values, who will like the idea of a Catholic family man more than an atheist woman with a de facto partner. I'm not saying that it's the right way to choose your leader. In fact, it's almost certainly the wrong way. The people who voted for Gillard for being female should feel ashamed of themselves. Sexism is sexism, regardly of which sex is discriminating against which. But the point is, with the postal vote, the Liberals will probably scrape home in both La Trobe and Corangamite. I am biased about La Trobe because I live in it, but I also keep thinking of all those rich old men and women living in retirement villages in the middle of Berwick and feeling sure that they will probably stick to the man they know in Jason Wood, (Liberal) over Laura Smyth (Labor), who is barely a blip on the radar around the electorate. Obviously I don't have similar insights with regard to Corangamite, but Sarah Henderson, the Liberal candidate in that electorate is a rather well-known ex-ABC journo. The fact the Labor candidate is the incumbent will make it incredibly tight, but I think the Libs might snap that one up too. I believe the last electorate in doubt is Hasluck in WA. I think the Libs will get that one too, if only just barely, because Ken Wyatt will make history if elected, by being the first indigenous Member of Parliament. Though this is only came to the attention of the nation last night, one would imagine that the people of Hasluck would have had this very much in mind when voting.

There's a lot of qualifiers in this blog, a lot of maybes. It's because I don't know, and neither does anyone else. People who have been studying the Australian electoral process their entires lives don't know. I can only say what I think according to my own perspective. If it ends up being a Gillard minority government, then we're in serious trouble, because the well-intentioned Greens will be pushing and pushing for actions and policies that our economy has no ability to support.

I'll be keeping my fingers crossed for Abbott as PM. There is no other outcome that will give Australia that stable government and economy it needs.